The Oscar race is heating up as the first phase of nominations approaches its final, unpredictable stretch. While a few frontrunners appear established, several unexpected contenders are gaining momentum.

Richard Linklater’s Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) continues to earn strong word-of-mouth support, positioning itself as a possible late-breaking Best Picture nominee. Meanwhile, Joseph Kosinski’s F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.), a star-driven, emotionally accessible racing drama starring Brad Pitt, is also testing the edges of the race. Its prospects may depend on a nomination from the Producers Guild of America.

International films remain a wildcard. Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama Sentimental Value is well-regarded, but the Academy’s appetite for multiple non-English-language films is uncertain. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian thriller The Secret Agent and Jafar Panahi’s French entry It Was Just an Accident are both in contention, though space in Best Picture is limited.

Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein has gained traction across categories, boosted by Jacob Elordi’s Critics’ Choice win for Supporting Actor as the Creature, giving the film new momentum beyond its technical achievements.

At the Critics’ Choice Awards, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another dominated, winning Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. Acting wins included Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jacob Elordi, and Amy Madigan (Weapons). Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which also won four Critics’ Choice Awards, could act as a late-breaking spoiler if support remains unified.

The awards season continues with the Screen Actors Guild nominations on Wednesday, the Golden Globes on Sunday, and Oscar nomination voting opening Monday.

Top Predicted Oscar Contenders

Best Picture: Blue Moon, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another (predicted winner), Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

Photo : Credit: Sabrina Lantos

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Photo : Ken Woroner/Netflix

Actor: Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

Photo : Courtesy Everett Collection

Actress: Jessie Buckley

Photo : Courtesy of Focus Features

(Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You),

Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue),

Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another),

Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgård

Photo : Focus Features

(Sentimental Value), Benicio Del Toro

(One Battle After Another),

Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein),

Paul Mescal (Hamnet),

Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

Supporting Actress: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

Photo : Quantrell Colbert

Screenplay (Original): Sinners, Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value

Screenplay (Adapted): One Battle After Another, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Train Dreams

Other major categories feature frontrunners like Frankenstein for Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup/Hairstyling; F1 and One Battle After Another in Cinematography and Film Editing; and Sinners leading in Original Score. The Animated Feature, Documentary, and Short categories include K-Pop Demon Hunters, The Perfect Neighbour, Two People Exchanging Saliva, and Éiru.

While frontrunners are emerging, Variety’s awards analysis notes that surprises are still possible, especially among late-breaking entries and international films.